Carbon Neutral Roadmap

Introduction

Jersey has made legally binding commitments to reduce substantially carbon emissions. The Carbon Neutral Roadmap set out how the reduction would be achieved. This brief explains Jersey’s commitments and the progress that is being made towards achieving them.

Summary

The Paris Agreement on climate change was formally extended to Jersey in May 2022, which means that Jersey is legally committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Jersey has committed to reduce emissions from the 1990 baseline level by 68% by 2030 and by 78% by 2035.

In 2023, 43% of Jersey’s emissions came from transport, 19% from business 14% from residential buildings and 14% from energy production and distribution.

In April 2022, the States Assembly agreed the Carbon Neutral Roadmap (CNR), including a delivery plan for 2022-2025. The Common Strategic Policy of the current Council of Ministers includes implementing the Roadmap.

The significant targets in respect of 2022 and 2023 were not met.

Jersey is establishing an independent Climate Council which will report in early 2026 on progress in implementing the CNR during the 2022-2025 delivery period. Proposals for the second CNR delivery plan will be brought forward in 2026.

A sustainable transport policy was published in December 2023. This set out broad commitments and decision-taking principles rather than actions.

A commitment to produce an energy strategy by the end of 2023 was not met. The States Assembly has agreed that an energy strategy will be produced by the end of 2026.

Implementing the CNR would cost about £300 million, which equates to £10 million a year over 30 years. A long-term financing strategy for the Roadmap was scheduled for 2023. This has now been renamed the Net Zero Financing Strategy. So far, only broad principles for the strategy have been identified.

The Climate Emergency Fund has been established to fund the various CNR initiatives. However, it is recognised that the Fund is not sufficient to finance all the policies needed to achieve net zero. Expenditure under the Fund is currently running at about £8 million a year, but budgeted to fall to around £4 million.

Emissions fell by 47.5% between 1990 and 2023. About three quarters of this reduction was accounted for by electricity supply being switched from an oil-fired power station to nuclear and hydro-electricity from France. Between 1990 and 2003 this caused emissions to fall by an average of 3.5% a year. Subsequently, the reduction has averaged 1.0% a year.

Emissions fell by 2.9% in 2022 and 0.2% in 2023.

To achieve the 2030 target, emissions will need to be reduced by 39% from the 2023 figure, an annual rate of 7%.

The CNR sets out specific sub-targets to be met by 2030 –

• End registration of new petrol and diesel cars and small vans.
• 67% of vehicles decarbonised.
• 75% of domestic and 50% of commercial fossil fuel boilers decarbonised.

As at December 2024 only 3.6% of vehicles were electric. PwC had estimated that even with incentives only 23% of the fleet would be decarbonised by 2030. A modest incentive scheme was ended in December 2024, 1,210 grants having been made.

By December 2024 468 grant applications had been received and 385 grants had been made for support to decarbonise boilers. Only a small proportion were to replace existing fossil fuel heating systems with an air source heat pump.

The target of reducing emissions by 68% compared to the 1990 baseline by 2030 cannot be achieved. This would require an annual 7% reduction in emissions whereas the figures for the two most recent years for which figures are available are 2.9% in 2022 and 0.2% in 2023. The reason why the target cannot be achieved is that no measures have been adopted which could significantly reduce emissions. The incentives to buy electric vehicles and to decarbonise boilers have been too small to have any effect and the freeze on fuel duty has had the opposite effect.

The Paris Agreement and Jersey’s commitments

The Paris Agreement, adopted in December 2015 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, is a legally binding international treaty with the goal of combating climate change. It came into force on 4 November 2016.

It has four key goals:

• Limit global warming to well below 2°C, ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels.
• Achieve global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible and net-zero emissions in the second half of the century.
• Enhance countries’ ability to adapt to climate impacts and build climate resilience.
• Align financial flows with low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.

Key features of the Agreement include –

• Each country sets its own emission reduction targets - Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) - which are reviewed and updated every five years.
• Transparency framework: countries must report on emissions and progress using a standardized system.
• Support for developing countries: financial aid, technology transfer, and capacity-building are central to the agreement.

The UK is a signatory to the Paris Agreement. It set a legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. The UK’s latest NDC (2020) pledge is for a 68% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This is one of the most ambitious NDCs globally.

The Paris Agreement was formally extended to Jersey in May 2022, which means that Jersey is now internationally accountable for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions in line with global climate goals., Jersey has set the following legally binding emissions reduction targets, using 1990 as the baseline year:

• 68% reduction by 2030
• 78% reduction by 2035
• Net-zero emissions by 2050.

Jersey’s target for 2030 is the same as that for the UK.

The Carbon Neutral Roadmap sets out the policies for achieving the targets.

Jersey’s emissions

The Guide to the Jersey Greenhouse Gas Inventory 2025 report gives details of the sources of Jersey’s emissions -

Transport 43%

Business 19%

Residential 14%

Energy supply 14%

Agriculture 6%

Waste management 4%

The transport category is made up of cars (59%), aviation (31%), domestic navigation (5%), trucks (3%) and other (1%).

It should be noted that there are substantial year-to-year variations in the breakdown of the total figures. Residential accounted for 22% of emissions in 2022 but only 14% in 2023. By contrast, business accounted for 14% of emissions in 2022 and 19% in 2023 and energy accounted for 8% in 2022 and 14% in 2023. The Aether report explains the reasons for these variations. It should also be noted that past years’ figures are subject to substantial revision, which makes comparisons over time difficult.

The Carbon Neutral Strategy and Carbon Neutral Roadmap

The Carbon Neutral Strategy, agreed in February 2020, set out the context for the strategy and five guiding principles to Jersey’s approach to carbon neutrality -

1 A strategic focus on all emissions

2 Work within a definition of carbon neutrality

3 High standards in the use of carbon offsetting

4 Making sure that everyone can play their part

5 Carbon neutrality policies do not overall increase income inequality

In April 2022 the States Assembly agreed the Carbon Neutral Roadmap. This sets out five strategic policies –

1. Jersey’s net-zero emissions pathway. It is stated that this will, in line with the commitments made under the Paris agreement, –

• At a minimum reduce emissions by 68% compared to the 1990 baseline by 2030, and reduce them to 78% from baseline by 2035.
• Deliver zero net emissions by 2050.
• Stay in line with and respond to further evidenced changes in science-based Island energy market global emissions reductions targets that are needed to limit global warming to 1.5%c

2. Island energy market, which requires a clear and long-term government led energy strategy with clear and accountable political leadership.

3. A financing strategy which sets out a timetable for bringing forward proposals with principles including that policies do not increase income inequality and proper processes.

4. Policy programme and development which is about the mechanisms to deliver the roadmap.

5. Becoming carbon neutral, which repeats the principles in the Carbon Neutral Strategy.

Delivery 2022-2025

The Roadmap included a Delivery Plan 2022-25, which was a mixture of -

• new policy interventions, including new incentive schemes to support Islanders to transition to lower carbon technologies
• commitments to introduce or amend regulations, such as to require greater energy efficiency in buildings and heating systems
• new targets, to focus action across the Island, such as the ambition to make Jersey a centre of excellence for Blue Carbon research and industries
• confirmation of future milestones, such as the requirement to decide, by 2028, if – having made substantial reductions in its emissions - Jersey needs to purchase offsets to reach a carbon neutral position

The following specific points were listed for 2022 –

• Bring forward a proposal to subsidise the rate of fuel duty charged on second generation renewable diesel by approximately 32 PPL
• Second generation renewable diesel phased into government of Jersey fleet
• Publish a sustainable transport road map
• Implement further active travel initiatives
• Provide a subsidy to households and businesses to transition to low-carbon heating systems
• Implement a new net zero rural economy strategy and marine economy strategy
• Explore opportunities for carbon capture from the existing electricity from waste plant
• Establishing a decarbonisation unit in government

For 2023 the following points were listed –

• Vehicle emissions duty optimisation
• From 1 January 2023 owners of electric vehicles will have the option of displaying a number plate with a green marker
• Speeding up the adoption of electric vehicles
• A grant scheme supporting low carbon heating systems and home insulation
• A financing strategy to be included in the 2024 Government Plan
• Publication of a review of the Island energy market
• Publication of a marine spatial plan
• The decarbonization unit will set quantified emissions reductions targets in departmental operational business plans

On 18 July 2023 the Government published Carbon Neutral Roadmap Progress Report. This did not report progress against the specific targets in the Roadmap but rather reported progress generally. The accompanying press release reported that “among the many milestones, outlined in the report, are:

• The launch of the low carbon heating incentive in May 2023 which supports Islanders with funding to help make the switch from oil or gas heating systems to low carbon alternatives and helps make buildings more energy efficient. It includes a new Contractor Quality Scheme for heat pump and other low carbon heating system installers to build on green skills and market capacity.
• The e-bike incentive scheme was launched in January 2023. More than £32,000 worth of vouchers have so far been redeemed.
• The establishment of the Decarbonising Government Unit, with more than 250 of the Government of Jersey’s diesel vehicles now converted to Second Generation Renewable Diesel. The Government’s fleet also now features more than 70 electric vehicles.
• Active travel initiatives to date have included School Streets(at St Luke’s School) and the Love to Ridecampaign, which has achieved some of the highest take-up figures in the British Isles.
• Continued close working with industry through the eco active business network and new initiatives such as the Sustainable Construction Summit.
• Progress on delivering the COP26 Education Pledge to improve education on climate change, and the successful delivery of low carbon lifestyles campaigns, with an initial focus on waste reduction.”

The Progress Report did not state explicitly whether the 17 targets for 2022 and the first half of 2023 had been achieved. A Freedom of Information request resulted in a schedule being provided, showing the status of each of the targets. This showed that nine had not been met. These include updating building by-laws, sustainable transport roadmap, active travel, use of renewable content petrol and diesel, creating a carbon neutral network and speeding up adoption of electric vehicles. Only one had been explicitly paused – supporting transition fuels. The targets that had been achieved were largely administrative, such as ratification of a treaty and green number plates for electric vehicles. The sustainable transport policy is the most important of the issues; it was eventually published in December 2023.

Of the other major initiatives scheduled for 2023 –

• A draft Marine Spatial Plan was published on 19 July 2024.
• The review of the Island energy market has not been published.
• The Government Plan 2024-2027 included a section on financing strategy, although not a strategy.
• A subsidy scheme for the purchase of electric vehicles and installation of charging points has been introduced.

On 14 August 2024 the Government published Carbon Neutral Roadmap Progress Report. The progress report does not aim to evaluate progress on reducing carbon emissions but rather provides an update on the delivery policies within the plan.

The Report explains the arrangements for evaluating reducing emissions -

The States Assembly is due to receive the first report from Jersey’s independent Climate Council in early 2026, prior to the general election. Work to establish the Climate Council will commence in Q4 2024. The Council’s report will evaluate the Government of Jersey’s progress in implementing the CNR during the 2022-2025 delivery period.

The CNR stipulates that, “an updated delivery plan be set out at the start of each new term of government.” Accordingly, proposals for the second CNR delivery plan will be brought forward in 2026 for the new States Assembly to consider, alongside the Climate Council’s findings and recommendations. To ensure alignment between the CNR and Climate Council cycles, 2026 will treated as a continuation year for the first CNR delivery plan, with the second CNR delivery plan running from 2027 - 2030.

Most of the report is concerned with administrative points. For example it is planned to begin work in 2025 on legislation to ban the importation and registration of petrol and diesel cars from 2030, a review of the Roads Law is underway, green number plates for electric vehicles have been introduced, bus service development trials are being held, work has commenced on proposals to reduce emissions from aviation and marine transport, an incentive scheme has been introduced to subsidise the replacement of fossil fuel heating systems with non-fossil fuel heating systems, a carbon neutral network has been established, work is being done on education, and work will commence in 2025 to develop a carbon offset purchasing strategy.

The Report includes some statistics on incentives for electric vehicles –

• In Q3 2023 the electric vehicle purchase incentive scheme was launched. By the end of July 2024, 755 applications had been received of which 691 had been redeemed. The average cost of cars under the scheme was £24,036. [The scheme was closed in December 2024. £4.3 million had funded 1,210 incentives, mainly of the £3,500. There is no analysis of the extent to which the subsidy went to people who would have bought electric vehicles anyway.]
• In Q3 2023 the electric vehicle charger scheme was introduced. By the end of July 2024, 75 applications had been received and 33 redeemed.

The Climate Council

Recruitment for members of the Climate Council began in April 2025. The recruitment pack set out the role of the Council -

The role of the Climate Council is to report on Jersey’s progress on both reducing GHG emissions and on the Government of Jersey’s delivery of the CNR climate change policy initiatives at the end of each term of government (every four years), to provide accountability and continuity of ambition across successive States Assemblies.

At the end of every four-year delivery phase for the term of the CNR, the Climate Council is required to present its autonomously prepared report to the States Assembly. The Council’s report will evaluate the Government of Jersey’s progress on reducing carbon emissions and the climate change policy initiatives being delivered as part of the CNR.

In preparing the four-yearly report, the work of the Climate Council may include: •

• Providing independent science-based advice on setting and meeting carbon budgets and preparing for climate change.
• Monitoring progress in reducing emissions and achieving carbon budgets and targets and recommending actions to keep Jersey on track.
• Conducting independent analysis into climate change science, economics and policy where such information cannot be transposed from other peer reviewed scientific research or analysis.
• Engaging with a wide range of organisations and individuals to share evidence and analysis.

The Council will also consider and advise on Carbon Sequestration initiatives that would be applicable to Jersey. The first four-yearly report from the Climate Council will be presented to the States Assembly by the end of Q1 2026. The Council will comprise up to five members. It is envisaged that a maximum of six days work will be required of members in order to produce the first report.

Sustainable transport policy

The Roadmap included: “bring forward the Sustainable Transport Roadmap to the States Assembly by the Q4 of 2022”. This did not happen. The progress report stated that this has now been renamed “Sustainable Transport Policy” and would be published by 24 July – six days later. This did not happen. On 6 December 2023 the Government published Sustainable Transport Policy: Next Steps.

The Policy does not have a summary; it is best summarised in the press release accompanying the report, which stated that the document prioritises six areas -

• making the roads safer for all of us
• reallocating road space to prioritise cycling and walking
• raising the profile of public transport
• managing vehicle movement through parking measures
• supporting the Island’s economy
• enabling future transport mobility and legislative change.

Some of the key commitments include -

• The creation of a Strategic Road Safety Unit and the publication of a road safety strategy.
• Creating more accessible, safer, covered waiting areas for bus users.
• Identifying opportunities to bring low carbon vehicles into the bus fleet.
• Reviewing charges and charging time periods for parking in public car parks.
• Working with key stakeholders to support shared mobility transport solutions.

The report includes ten decision making principles, originally published in 2020, for transport that will be “built into and applied in public decision-making in a range of ways” -

• Recognise that fewer motor vehicle journeys will be good for Jersey.
• Conform with the Jersey mobility hierarchy (which begins with children, elderly people and people with disabilities and ends with single occupancy cars).
• Improve transport options, including parking, for people with mobility impairments.
• Make walking and cycling routes more attractive, especially for school and commuting, by providing safer routes.
• Invest in a better bus system that more people want to use and that is accessible to all, [and present a Bus Service Development Plan to the States for debate during the spring session 2021].
• Recognise, and price fairly, the social and environmental costs of private vehicle use [and present a Parking Plan for debate during the Spring session 2021].
• Reduce the impact of vehicles on our landscape and create more space for people in St Helier.
• Create public service and planning systems that reduce the need to travel.
• Discourage the use of petrol and diesel vehicles and encourage the use of zero emission vehicles to reduce pollution.
• Work with businesses that rely on road transport to support their efficient and safe use of the road network, their delivery and servicing needs and their uptake of alternative low carbon fuels.

Energy policy

Jersey does not currently have an energy policy. The Carbon Neutral Roadmap (CNR) is currently the key document in respect of energy policy. The summary in the CNR on the island energy market stated -

There are a number of available and emerging non-fossil hydrocarbon products and new energy sources that are entering the marketplace in all sectors. They will reach maturity and commercial availability over the next three decades and have the potential to contribute to Jersey’s decarbonisation journey. Some new products, particularly biofuels, are direct substitutes for existing fossil-hydrocarbons making transition simpler assuming supply and demand align, and prices are competitive enough to encourage uptake.

There will be a need to accommodate changes to our energy system in the future, as products change and with increased potential to democratise power generation, distribution, and storage.

There are challenges to bring new energy sources to the Island where they require new infrastructure and supply lines (for example, hydrogen).

We expect to see a decentralisation of electricity generation in the forthcoming decades, and we will need to consider the impact of this on our current electricity market and infrastructure.

As the cost of generating utility scale (offshore) renewable energy falls, we might want to consider investment to provide the Island with energy sovereignty and resilience. Jersey participates in the British Irish Council energy work stream where it is represented alongside England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales and the other Crown Dependencies. Jersey is represented on a number of French working groups e.g., Ille et Vilaine, La Manche, where renewable energy is a key topic due to the development of the St Brieuc windfarm in French territorial waters. There will be increased coordination across the Channel Islands with recent discussions seeking to re-establish a Ministerial working group that will identify opportunities to work across the Islands to explore the opportunities for marine renewable projects.

Responding to these related challenges requires a clear and long-term government led energy strategy with clear and accountable political leadership. A new ministerial portfolio for energy and climate change is recommended to oversee the planned energy market review, which will need to ensure our statutory and regulatory framework remains fit-for-purpose in a new energy future to balance energy affordability, sustainability, and security of supply issues.

The CNR stated that an Energy Strategy would be published by Q4 2023. This did not happen. The following response was given on 27 February 2024 to a Freedom of Information request -

A future-focussed Government-led Energy Strategy is an output proposed in Strategic Policy 2 of the Carbon Neutral Roadmap arising from a strategic review of Jersey’s long term energy requirements. The policy outlines consideration of, amongst other things, economic, regulatory infrastructure and land use requirements linked to future energy use; it intends to provide a process – and appropriate political governance – to develop energy market policy in a joined-up and evidence-based way. It was proposed that to support this work, government would establish new research and advisory partnerships with energy systems experts; explore opportunities to trial, appropriately, new and emerging energy solutions in Jersey; and work with the Energy Forum to solicit decarbonisation transition plans and market insights from all current Island energy providers. A new ministerial portfolio for energy and climate change was also recommended. As part of the strategic energy market policy, there was a commitment to work with our sister Islands and examine the options for utility scale renewable energy generation, to ensure a diverse, safe and resilient supply of energy to meet the Island’s future needs.

This strategy has not yet been published. However, with the establishment of a ministerial portfolio for energy within the Minister for Environment’s portfolio this has been an active area of work, with consideration and policy development being undertaken across the energy market portfolio, as described in Strategic Policy 2, that will ultimately build into a strategy. Focus has been on Council of Ministers’ development of a proposal for export scale offshore wind energy with an in-principal Report and Proposition being debated in the States Assembly in March. Such a decision would transform our energy strategy. A conclusion to this policy proposal, as well as further ongoing analysis of the energy market particularly any impacts on the LPG gas market, will allow this Government to develop an Energy Strategy.

While this response helpfully sets out some of the issues with an energy strategy it seems to imply that the States Assembly would take a firm decision to build a wind farm. In fact the Assembly agreed that “Jersey should pursue the opportunities arising from the development of offshore wind in the south-west of its territorial waters”. During the debate the Environment Minister said that the proposition did not commit the Island to building a wind farm, to any excessive expenditure, or binding Jersey into a relationship with third parties. He added that after detailed studies had taken place a decision could be reached that the concept did not work for Jersey.

On 22 April 2025 the States Assembly resolved that the Council of Ministers must –

(a) develop, and before 31st December 2026 start implementing, an evidence-based energy strategy that sets out Jersey’s long-term energy requirements and balances the need for affordability, safety, security, a market that delivers competitive outcomes and carbon neutrality of the energy sector in Jersey; and

(b) bring forward any necessary legislative changes subsequent to the implementation of the energy strategy, for approval by the Assembly before the 31st of December 2027.

Financing strategy and the Climate Emergency Fund

The Climate Emergency Fund is the mechanism for funding the various Carbon Neutral Roadmap initiatives. However, how the fund operates is not clear. The Roadmap has a section headed “Financing Strategy – Carbon Neutral Roadmap – strategic policy 3”. This states that the Fund “will maintain a hypothecated revenue stream to fund Jersey’s decarbonisation”. Three stages were proposed to identify the funding –

Short-term, using resources already in the fund to support policies in the first stage (2022-2026).

Medium-term: government will bring forward in 2022, in time for potential inclusion in the Government Plan 2023, proposals for new economic instruments that generate income ring-fenced to the Climate Emergency Fund (in whole or in part) in the following areas:

a. Road user charges

b. Reinvestigation of commercial solid waste charges

c. Car parking charges

d. Travel duty, and

Longer-term: bring forward in 2023, in time for potential inclusion in the Government Plan 2024, a long-term financing strategy that considers all available options to continue to fund the decarbonisation of the economy at the pace required to achieve the emissions trajectory established in Carbon Neutral Roadmap.

The Roadmap made a number of further references to the Fund –

• Excess revenue from VED increases will be deposited in the Fund.
• The Environment Minister has policy responsibility for administering the fund.
• High level spend is agreed by the Assembly via the Government Plan or the “carbon neutral delivery fund”.
• The Treasury Minister is responsible for the investment strategy of the fund.

The CNR set out how the initial funding would be used –

Speeding up adoption of electric vehicles £4,855,000

Supporting transition fuels £3,189,000

Bus service development trials £1,500,000

Active Travel £1,700,000

Supporting low carbon heating and insulation £5,706,000

Energy performance certificates £355,000

Promoting low-carbon lifestyles £200,000

Delivering a sustainable finance framework £60,000

Decarbonising Government of Jersey £1,260,000

Create a carbon neutral network £500,000

Delivering the COP26 education pledge £200,000

Blue carbon biodiversity and sequestration £1,325,000

Policy development £1,200,000

Regulatory, enabling and programme £950,000

Total £23,000,000

However, no proposals for new economic instruments were brought forward in 2022 to be included in the Government Plan 2023.

The Roadmap refers to a “long-term financing strategy” (LTFS) to be brought forward in 2023 for inclusion in the Government Plan 2024. The Government Plan did have a section under this heading. However, it is not a strategy but rather “the principles under which detailed proposals for financing will be developed”. In summary these are -

1. The LTFS will work fairly for all Islanders - just transition, polluter pays and intergenerational equity.

2. The LTFS will target the best value approach for Islanders – value for money, minimising costs funded through taxation, fast follower and international alignment, the role for Jersey’s sustainable finance industry and the role of government funds in derisking investment.

3. Financing will be made available when it is needed.

The Plan continued –

Ensuring that the burden of paying for the move to carbon neutrality doesn’t fall on future generations means that it will be necessary to raise funding. Based on previous estimates of a c.£300 million requirement, this would equate to approximately £10 million a year over the next 30 years, some of which will be delivered by the existing revenue ring-fenced to the Climate Emergency Fund each year.

Further policy work will also take place in 2024 to establish a suitable set of polluter-pays measures that could deliver the additional funding required.

This will include investigation of the introduction of an appropriate carbon tax or charge relating to the operation of private aircraft.

Polluter pays measures are designed to encourage changes to behaviour, therefore any future decreases in revenues will need to be understood as part of the development of new measures. The impact of any measures on Islanders will also need to be carefully assessed and understood to ensure that the principle of a fair transition is upheld. Any new form of taxation will involve associated administrative and compliance costs, which must also be factored into the viability of introducing any tax.

The Budget (Government Plan) 2025-2028 has no further detail but states that the LTFS has been renamed Net Zero Financing Strategy.

Successive Government Plans give further details about the operation of the Climate Emergency Fund. The Government Plan 2023-2026 stated that: “The Fund was created with £5 million transferred from the Consolidated Fund in 2020 and receives annual income from an above RPI increase in fuel duty. At its current value, it is accepted that the Fund is insufficient to fund all the necessary policies to achieve our carbon neutral targets and it is expected that further income streams will need to be added to the Fund.

The Government Plan 2024-2027 had different wording: The Fund was created with £5 million transferred from the Consolidated Fund in 2020 and receives annual income from previously agreed increases in fuel duty”.

This change was needed because the decision was taken in 2022 to freeze fuel duty in 2023 as an exceptional measure in recognition of the significant increase in the cost of living. The proposed 2024 Government Plan included: “Ministers are proposing to return to the policy of holding the rate of duty constant, in real terms, by indexing it to the growth of RPI (10.9%). The uprating of fuel duty signals Ministers’ commitment to the agreed Carbon Neutral Roadmap.” In the event, the Government accepted a recommendation from the Scrutiny Panel to freeze the duty for a second year.

The Budget for 2025 maintains the freezing of fuel duty, so it has been held at 64p a litre for unleaded fuel since January 2022. If it been increased in line with RPI it would now be 79p. In real terms the tax of fossil fuel has fallen by 19%. The income from the revenue would be duty of fuel is estimated to be £25,857,000 million in 2025. If the duty had been increased in line with RPI and assuming no impact on demand revenue would be approximately 19% higher at £30,770,000 million.

Table 1 shows the figures from the various government plans for the Fund. There is no clear reconciliation between the years. Successive Government Plans and Budgets recognise that the fund is not sufficient to fund all the policies needed to achieve the targets in the Roadmap.

Table 1 The Climate Emergency Fund

The budgeted expenditure figures for future years are £4,254,000 (2026), £4,210,000 (2027) and £4,167,000 (2028).

Assessment of progress

The objective in the CNR is “at a minimum reduce emissions by 68% compared to the 1990 baseline by 2030, and reduce them to 78% from baseline by 2035”.

Jersey had made considerable progress in reducing emissions – a 47.5% reduction between 1990 and 2023, an annual rate of about 1.5%. About three quarters of this reduction was accounted for by electricity supply being switched from an oil-fired power station to nuclear and hydro-electricity from France. Between 1994 and 2022 imports of oil to generate electricity fell from 82,000 tonnes to 0, while imports of road fuel fell by about 1% a year from 43,000 tonnes to 31,000 tonnes. Nuclear and hydro-electric are not entirely carbon-free. The construction of the facilities results in emissions – although the electricity that Jersey is importing is from facilities that had already been constructed. Distributing the electricity in Jersey also results in some emissions. However, compared with using fossil fuels to generate electricity the emissions are small.

The consultancy Aether produces an annual report Guide to the Jersey Greenhouse Gas Inventory. The 2025 report, giving data for 2023, was published on 3 June 2025. Table 2 shows the change in emissions by sector since 1990.

Table 2 Carbon emissions, tonnes CO2 equivalent, 1990 and 2023

It will be seen that emissions from energy fell by 78%; emissions from all other sectors combined fell by 33%. Including energy, emissions declined by an average of 1.5% a year between 1990 and 2023. However, this conceals an average annual reduction of 3.5% a year between 1990 and 2003 and 1.0% a year subsequently.

Total emissions fell by 2.9% in 2022 and 0.2% in 2023.

Table 3 shows the required rate of reduction of emissions to achieve the 2030 target.

Table 3 Emissions, 1990-2030

To achieve the 2030 target emissions will need to be 218,000 tonnes CO2 equivalent, a reduction of 39% on the 2023 figure, an annual rate of about 7%. Each year that emissions fall below the required annual rate the greater the reduction required in subsequent years. So assume a substantial reduction in the rate of reduction of emissions to 2% in 2024 and 2025 the required annual rate of reduction would be 8.5% from 2025.

It is worth noting briefly the position in other jurisdictions –

• Jersey adopted the UK target of a 68% reduction in emissions by 2030 from the 1990 baseline. The UK has published detailed figures for 2024, which show a 54% reduction, compared with Jersey’s 47.5% to 2023. Emissions fell by 6.8% in 2023 (compared with 0.2% in Jersey) and by 3.5% in 2024.
• Scotland adopted more ambitious targets of a 75% reduction by 2030 with net zero being achieved in 2045. However, it abandoned these targets when it became clear that they were not attainable.
• The EU has adopted a target of a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030, and is on course to meet this.

The CNR sets out a specific sub-target for vehicles to be met by 2030 – 67% of vehicles decarbonised.

It is worth noting that this is a rather poor target. It is quite feasible to reduce submissions substantially without people buying electric cars. If people with petrol or diesel vehicles drive 10% less then emissions from vehicles would fall by 10%. If a person with a gas guzzling Range Rover buys a small Ford Fiesta and uses it for half of their journeys then the proportion of fossil fuel vehicles rises but emissions fall. Also the carbon content of electric vehicles is much higher than for petrol-driven vehicles. A new electric vehicle driven for 5,000 miles a year will be responsible for more emissions than a new petrol-driven car.

The Government does not publish figures on sales of electric vehicles in an accessible way. The most recently published data is for 2023 although some data is available for 2024. Table 4 shows the key data.

Table 4 Electric vehicles

Notes:

1. In 2023 4,207 cars were registered and 3,780 were deregistered.

2. Although 127,911 vehicles were registered in 2023 many are no longer in use. It is estimated that there are about 90,000 vehicles in use.

3. The table takes no account of vehicles using renewable diesel.

The absence of reliable statistics means that it is difficult to assess progress in achieving the target. Given that the actual number of vehicles is nearer 90,000 than the 128,000 vehicles on the register, it is probable that the proportion of electric vehicles at end-2024 was around 3.6%

A report by PwC on the Distributional Impacts of the Carbon Neutral Strategy suggested that with no incentives electric vehicles would account for 13% of the Jersey fleet by 2030, and with support 23%. On present trends the PwC estimate of 13% seems reasonable. The target of 67% is clearly not capable of being met. The Electric Vehicle Purchase Incentive scheme was closed in December 2024, having provided just 1,210 incentives.

The CNR has specific targets for decarbonising fossil fuel boilers by 2030.

75% of domestic and 50% of commercial fossil fuel boilers decarbonised. In terms of numbers this means 16,000 domestic boilers and 1,700 commercial boilers

A government incentive scheme for domestic boilers was introduced in May 2023. This covers all of the low carbon technologies available to households from which they can make their choice. This includes heat pumps, electric flow boilers and direct electric heating. No regular statistics on the take up of the scheme are published. Data are available only through Freedom of Information requests. By December 2024, 468 grant applications had been received and 385 grants had been made. It is possible that a small number of boilers have been decarbonised without a grant.

Much of the discussion – in the UK as well as Jersey – has been about the use of air pumps. Of the 468 grant applications received by December 2024, 54 were replace existing fossil fuel heating systems with an air source heat pump.

The 16,000 target works out at 2,000 a year over an eight year period. In the final nine months of 2024, that is after the incentive scheme had been running for a year 181 grants were made, an annual rate of 241. This performance is very similar to that in the UK.

.On 14 May 2024 the Government announced that a ban on the installation of new fossil fuel boilers, scheduled for 2026, had been delayed, but with no new date given for implementation.

Conclusion

The target of reducing emissions by 68% compared to the 1990 baseline by 2030 cannot be achieved. This would require an annual 6.8% reduction in emissions whereas the figures for the two most years for which figures are available are 2.9% in 2022 and 0.2% in 2023. The reason why the target cannot be achieved is that no measures have been adopted which could significantly reduce emissions. The incentives to buy electric vehicles and to decarbonise boilers have been too small to have any effect and the freeze on fuel duty has had the opposite effect.

Further information

The government website has a page The Journey to Net Zero.

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