Policy Brief on Carbon Neutral Roadmap updated

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On 3 June the Government published the official report on Jersey’s carbon emissions in 2023. This showed a mere 0.2% reduction in emissions from 2022. This is further evidence that the 2030 target of a 68% reduction on the 1990 baseline figure cannot be achieved.

The Policy Centre has updated its Policy Brief Carbon Neutral Roadmap to include and analyse the new data.

A summary of the Brief is set out below –

Jersey has committed to reduce emissions from the 1990 baseline level by 68% by 2030 and by 78% by 2035.

In 2023, 43% of Jersey’s emissions came from transport, 19% from business 14% from residential buildings and 14% from energy production and distribution.

In April 2022, the States Assembly agreed the Carbon Neutral Roadmap (CNR), including a delivery plan for 2022-2025. The Common Strategic Policy of the current Council of Ministers includes implementing the Roadmap.

Emissions fell by 47.5% between 1990 and 2023. About three quarters of this reduction was accounted for by electricity supply being switched from an oil-fired power station to nuclear and hydro-electricity from France. Between 1990 and 2003 this caused emissions to fall by an average of 3.5% a year. Subsequently, the reduction has averaged 1.0% a year.

Emissions fell by 2.9% in 2022 and 0.2% in 2023.

To achieve the 2030 target, emissions will need to be reduced by 39% from the 2023 figure, an annual rate of 7%.

The CNR sets out specific sub-targets to be met by 2030 –

• End registration of new petrol and diesel cars and small vans.
• 67% of vehicles decarbonised.
• 75% of domestic and 50% of commercial fossil fuel boilers decarbonised.

As at December 2024 only 3.6% of vehicles were electric. PwC had estimated that even with incentives only 23% of the fleet would be decarbonised by 2030. A modest incentive scheme was ended in December 2024, 1,210 grants having been made.

An incentive scheme to decarbonise boilers has similarly had very little impact.

The target of reducing emissions by 68% compared to the 1990 baseline by 2030 cannot be achieved. This would require an annual 7% reduction in emissions whereas the figures for the two most recent years for which figures are available are 2.9% in 2022 and 0.2% in 2023. The reason why the target cannot be achieved is that no measures have been adopted which could significantly reduce emissions. The incentives to buy electric vehicles and to decarbonise boilers have been too small to have any effect and the freeze on fuel duty has had the opposite effect.

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