News
Electorate increases by 31%
On 13 April a written answer to a question by a member of the States Assembly gave a provisional figure for the size of the electorate for the 2026 election of 79,615, a 31% increase on the figure for the 2022 election. The increase varied from 71% in St Helier to just one person in St Mary.
The following table shows the figures for each parish.
Size of the electorate, 2026 election
| Parish | Electorate 2022 | Electorate 2026 | Increase in electorate | Increase in electorate % |
| St Helier | 16,837 | 28,820 | 11,893 | 71 |
| St Clement | 6,179 | 7,664 | 1,485 | 24 |
| St Saviour | 7,683 | 10,574 | 2,891 | 38 |
| St Brelade | 8,043 | 8,174 | 131 | 2 |
| Grouville | 3,684 | 4,140 | 456 | 12 |
| St Lawrence | 3,741 | 4,101 | 360 | 10 |
| St Peter | 3,338 | 4,110 | 772 | 23 |
| St Martin | 2,719 | 2,949 | 230 | 8 |
| St John | 2,290 | 2,343 | 53 | 2 |
| St Mary | 1,374 | 1,375 | 1 | – |
| St Ouen | 2,813 | 3,024 | 211 | 8 |
| Trinity | 1,970 | 2,341 | 371 | 19 |
| Jersey | 60,671 | 79,615 | 18,944 | 31 |
The Policy Centre’s Brief 2026 General Election explained the rationale behind the decision to introduce automatic registration of electors.
It is reasonable to assume that as a result of automatic registration some people who would otherwise not have been on the register will be and will vote. However, it is also the case that many people who have previously not registered simply did not want to vote. It is therefore likely that most of the people who are on the register only as a result of automatic registration are less likely to vote than those who have chosen to register. The effect therefore will be a reduction in the published turnout figure even if the number of electors increases.
The Policy Brief estimated the effect. Using figures for the 2022 election, assuming that automatic registration would have increased the number of registered electors, in round terms, by 20,000 to 80,00 but of those additional 20,000 only 4,000 (20%) chose to vote, as opposed to the 42% of registered electors who voted, the figures would have been –
Registered electors 80,000
Electors 29,334
Electors/registered electors 36.6%
The effect would have been to reduce the published turnout by five percentage points from 41.7% to 36.6%.
The effect would not be uniform. The reduction in turnout would have been minimal in St Mary as it had near 100% registration. In St Helier, the reduction in the published turnout figure would have been about nine percentage points from 29% to around 20%.
The Centre’s Research Report Election turnout in Jersey compared the position in Jersey and Guernsey. Guernsey compiles a register for each election as a result of which there are few people on the register who should not be and no one on the register who does not want to be on it. As a result, only about 60% of eligible voters are registered voters compared with 75% in the 2022 Jersey election and nearly 100% for the 2026 election. This means that published turnout figures give a misleading impression –
- Jersey 2022 election: 42% of registered electors, 31% of eligible electors, voted.
- Guernsey 2025 election: 72% of registered electors, 38% of eligible electors, voted.
So, in the published figures and international league tables Guernsey’s turnout is 71% higher than Jersey, but on a like-for like comparison the difference was just 23%.
A by-election was held in Guernsey on 30 April. Published turnout was just 17%, 9% of eligible voters. The winning candidate had 953 votes, 1.9% of eligible electors.
