Carbon Neutral Roadmap

Introduction

Jersey has committed to substantially reducing carbon emissions. The Carbon Neutral Roadmap set out how the reduction would be achieved.. This brief explains Jersey’s commitments and the progress that is being made towards achieving them.

Summary

The Paris Agreement on reducing climate change was formally extended to Jersey in May 2022, which means that Jersey is committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Jersey has adopted interim targets for reducing emissions from the agreed baseline year of 1990, of 68% by 2030 and 78% by 2035.

In 2024, 47% of Jersey’s emissions came from transport, 11% from business 18% from residential buildings and 10% from energy production and distribution.

In April 2022, the States Assembly approved the Carbon Neutral Roadmap (CNR), including its delivery plan for 2022-2025. The significant targets for 2022, 2023 and 2024 were not met.

In March 2026 Jersey’s independent Climate Council issued its report on progress in implementing the CNR during the 2022-2025 delivery period.  It concluded that: “on the current trajectory, the 2030 targets laid out in the Roadmap and associated policies are unachievable”. The Council identified its main concerns under four overarching themes: just transition failures, over-reliance on technological fixes, falling behind international best practice and focus on end use rather than supply.

Proposals for the second CNR delivery plan – outlining the Government’s approach for 2027-2030 – will be brought forward in 2026.

A Sustainable Transport Policy was published in December 2023. This set out broad commitments and decision-taking principles rather than actions.

A commitment to produce an energy strategy by the end of 2023 was not met. The States Assembly has agreed that an energy strategy will be produced by the end of 2026.

Implementing the CNR would cost about £300 million, which equates to £10 million a year over 30 years. A long-term financing strategy for the Roadmap was scheduled for 2023. This has now been renamed the Net Zero Financing Strategy. So far, only broad principles for the strategy have been identified.

The Climate Emergency Fund was established to fund the various CNR initiatives. However, it is recognised that the Fund is not sufficient to finance all the policies needed to achieve net zero. Expenditure under the Fund is estimated to be £4.1 million in 2026, and is budgeted to be £4.4 million in 2027 and 2028.

Emissions fell by 48.8% between 1990 and 2024. About three-quarters of this reduction was accounted for by electricity supply being switched from an oil-fired power station to nuclear and hydro-electricity from France. Between 1990 and 2003 this caused emissions to fall by an average of 3.5% a year. Subsequently, the reduction has averaged 1.0% a year. Emissions fell by 4.0% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024.

To achieve the 2030 target, emissions will need to be reduced by 37.5% from the 2024 figure, an annual rate of 7.7%.

The CNR set out specific sub-targets to be met by 2030 –

• End registration of new petrol and diesel cars and small vans.
• 67% of vehicles decarbonised.
• 75% of domestic and 50% of commercial fossil fuel boilers decarbonised.

As of December 2025, only 4% of vehicles were electric. PwC had estimated that even with incentives, only 23% of the fleet would be decarbonised by 2030.

By September 2025, 709 applications had been accepted for support to decarbonise boilers of which 134 were to replace existing fossil fuel heating systems with air source heat pumps.

The target of reducing emissions by 68% compared to the 1990 baseline by 2030 cannot be achieved as the necessary policy decisions have not been taken.

The Paris Agreement and Jersey’s commitments

The Paris Agreement, adopted in December 2015 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, is a legally binding international treaty with the goal of combating climate change. It came into force on 4 November 2016.

It has four key goals:

• Limit global warming to well below 2°C, ideally 1.5°C, above pre-industrial levels.
• Achieve global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible and net-zero emissions in the second half of the century.
• Enhance countries’ ability to adapt to climate impacts and build climate resilience.
• Align financial flows with low greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development.

Key features of the Agreement include –

• Each country sets its own emission reduction targets – Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) – which are reviewed and updated every five years.
• Transparency framework: countries must report on emissions and progress using a standardised system.
• Support for developing countries: financial aid, technology transfer, and capacity-building are central to the agreement.

The UK is a signatory to the Paris Agreement. It set a legally binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. The UK’s latest NDC (2020) pledge is for a 68% reduction in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. This is one of the most ambitious NDCs globally.

The Paris Agreement was formally extended to Jersey in May 2022, which means that Jersey is now internationally accountable for reducing its greenhouse gas emissions in line with global climate goals. Jersey has set the following emissions reduction targets, using 1990 as the baseline year:

• 68% reduction by 2030
• 78% reduction by 2035
• Net-zero emissions by 2050.

Jersey’s target for 2030 is the same as that for the UK.

The Carbon Neutral Roadmap sets out the policies for achieving the 2030 target and subsequent targets.

Jersey’s emissions

The Guide to the Jersey Greenhouse Gas Inventory  2026 report gives details of the causes of Jersey’s emissions –

Road transport                              26.4%

Shipping and aviation                 20.7%

Residential                                      17.5%

Business                                          10.6%

Energy supply                                 10.4%

Agriculture                                        5.5%

Waste management                         3.6%

It should be noted that there are substantial year-to-year variations in the breakdown of the total figures. The Aether Report explains the reasons for these variations. It should also be noted that past years’ figures are subject to substantial revision, which makes comparisons over time difficult.

The Carbon Neutral Strategy and Carbon Neutral Roadmap

The Carbon Neutral Strategy, agreed in February 2020, set out the context for the strategy and five guiding principles to Jersey’s approach to carbon neutrality –

1. A strategic focus on all emissions.
2. Work within a definition of carbon neutrality.
3. High standards in the use of carbon offsetting.
4. Making sure that everyone can play their part.
5. Carbon neutrality policies do not overall increase income inequality.

In April 2022, the States Assembly approved the Carbon Neutral Roadmap. This sets out five strategic policies –

1. Jersey’s net-zero emissions pathway. It is stated that, in line with the commitments made under the Paris agreement, this will –

• At a minimum reduce emissions by 68% compared to the 1990 baseline by 2030, and reduce them to 78% from baseline by 2035.
• Deliver zero net emissions by 2050.
• Stay in line with and respond to further evidenced changes in science-based Island energy market global emissions reductions targets that are needed to limit global warming to 1.5%c.

2. Island energy market, which requires a clear and long-term government led energy strategy with clear and accountable political leadership.

3. A financing strategy which sets out a timetable for bringing forward proposals with principles including that policies do not increase income inequality and proper processes.

4. Policy programme and development, which is about the mechanisms to deliver the roadmap.

5. Becoming carbon neutral, which repeats the principles in the Carbon Neutral Strategy.

Delivery 2022-2025

The Roadmap included a Delivery Plan 2022-25, which was a mixture of –

• New policy interventions, including new incentive schemes to support Islanders to transition to lower carbon technologies.
• Commitments to introduce or amend regulations, such as to require greater energy efficiency in buildings and heating systems.
• New targets, to focus action across the Island, such as the ambition to make Jersey a centre of excellence for Blue Carbon research and industries.
• Confirmation of future milestones, such as the requirement to decide, by 2028, if – having made substantial reductions in its emissions – Jersey needs to purchase offsets to reach a carbon neutral position.

The following specific points were listed for 2022 –

• Bring forward a proposal to subsidise the rate of fuel duty charged on second generation renewable diesel by approximately 32 pence per litre (PPL).
• Second generation renewable diesel to be phased into the Government of Jersey fleet.
• Publish a sustainable transport road map.
• Implement further active travel initiatives.
• Provide a subsidy to households and businesses to transition to low-carbon heating systems.
• Implement a new net-zero rural economy strategy and marine economy strategy
• Explore opportunities for carbon capture from the energy from waste plant.
• Establishing a decarbonisation unit in government

For 2023 the following points were listed –

• Vehicle emissions duty optimisation.
• From 1 January 2023. owners of electric vehicles will have the option of displaying a number plate with a green marker.
• Speeding up the adoption of electric vehicles.
• A grant scheme supporting low-carbon heating systems and home insulation.
• A financing strategy to be included in the 2024 Government Plan.
• Publication of a review of the Island energy market.
• Publication of a marine spatial plan.
• The decarbonisation unit will set quantified emissions reductions targets in departmental operational business plans.

On 18 July 2023, the Government published the Carbon Neutral Roadmap Progress Report. This did not report progress against the specific targets in the Roadmap but rather reported progress generally. The accompanying press release reported that “among the many milestones, outlined in the report, are:

• The launch of the low carbon heating incentive in May 2023, which supports Islanders with funding to help make the switch from oil or gas heating systems to low-carbon alternatives and helps make buildings more energy efficient. It includes a new Contractor Quality Scheme for heat pump and other low carbon heating system installers to build on green skills and market capacity.
• The e-bike incentive scheme was launched in January 2023. More than £32,000 worth of vouchers have so far been redeemed.
• The establishment of the Decarbonising Government Unit, with more than 250 of the Government of Jersey’s diesel vehicles now converted to Second Generation Renewable Diesel. The Government’s fleet also now features more than 70 electric vehicles.
• Active travel initiatives to date have included School Streets(at St Luke’s School) and the Love to Ridecampaign, which has achieved some of the highest take-up figures in the British Isles.
• Continued close working with industry through the eco active business network and new initiatives such as the Sustainable Construction Summit.
• Progress on delivering the COP26 Education Pledge to improve education on climate change, and the successful delivery of low-carbon lifestyles campaigns, with an initial focus on waste reduction.”

The Progress Report did not state explicitly whether the 17 targets for 2022 and the first half of 2023 had been achieved. A Freedom of Information request resulted in a schedule being provided, showing the status of each of the targets. This showed that nine had not been met. These included updating building by-laws, sustainable transport roadmap, active travel, use of petrol and diesel containing renewable content, creating a carbon-neutral network and speeding up adoption of electric vehicles. Only one had been explicitly paused – supporting transition fuels. The targets that had been achieved were largely administrative, such as ratification of a treaty and green number plates for electric vehicles. The sustainable transport policy is the most important of the issues; it was eventually published in December 2023.

Of the other major initiatives scheduled for 2023 –

• A draft Marine Spatial Plan was published on 19 July 2024.
• The review of the Island energy market has not been completed.
• The Government Plan 2024-2027 included a section on financing strategy, although not a strategy.
• A subsidy scheme for the purchase of electric vehicles and installation of charging points has been introduced.

On 14 August 2024, the Government published the Carbon Neutral Roadmap Progress Report . The progress report did not aim to evaluate progress on reducing carbon emissions but rather to provide an update on the delivery policies within the plan.

The Report explained the arrangements for evaluating reducing emissions –

The States Assembly is due to receive the first report from Jersey’s independent Climate Council in early 2026, prior to the general election. Work to establish the Climate Council will commence in Q4 2024. The Council’s report will evaluate the Government of Jersey’s progress in implementing the CNR during the 2022-2025 delivery period.

The CNR stipulates that, “an updated delivery plan be set out at the start of each new term of government.” Accordingly, proposals for the second CNR delivery plan will be brought forward in 2026 for the new States Assembly to consider, alongside the Climate Council’s findings and recommendations. To ensure alignment between the CNR and Climate Council cycles, 2026 will [be] treated as a continuation year for the first CNR delivery plan, with the second CNR delivery plan running from 2027 – 2030.

Most of the report was concerned with administrative points.

The Report included some statistics on incentives for electric vehicles –

• In Q3 2023 the electric vehicle purchase incentive scheme was launched. By the end of July 2024, 755 applications had been received of which 691 had been redeemed. The average cost of cars under the scheme was £24,036. [The scheme was closed in December 2024. £4.3 million had funded 1,210 incentives, mainly of the £3,500. There is no analysis of the extent to which the subsidy went to people who would have bought electric vehicles anyway.]
• In Q3 2023 the electric vehicle charger scheme was introduced. By the end of July 2024, 75 applications had been received and 33 redeemed.

On 30 July 2025, the Government published the Carbon Neutral Roadmap Progress report July 2025.

The report does not have a meaningful summary. However, of the 32 actions 13 are classed as amber (“work commenced but has missed or is at risk of not meeting the target or timeline”) and one as red (“work has not yet started or is cancelled”). Many of those classed as green are administrative.

The key action is meeting the net-zero emissions pathway. The report states that “Emissions have reduced but risk of not meeting the interim target for 2030.” The summary table is reproduced below.

The Climate Council

The Carbon Neutral Roadmap made provision for the establishment of a Climate Council with a remit to report on Jersey’s progress on both reducing greenhouse gas emissions and on the Government’s delivery of the Roadmap policy initiatives at the end of each term of government.

On 9 March 2026, the Government published the report of the Climate Council Reviewing the progress of the Carbon Neutral Roadmap 2022. The report includes a comprehensive analysis of all the activities identified in the Roadmap.

The Council concluded that: “on the current trajectory, the 2030 targets laid out in the Roadmap and associated policies are unachievable”.

The Council identified its main concerns under four overarching themes:

1. Just Transition Failures

 ➢ Subsidies skewed towards the wealthy.

➢ Polluter-pays principles weakened or abandoned.

➢ Untaxed high-emissions activities (e.g. aviation).

2. Over-reliance on Technological Fixes

➢ Electrification prioritised over demand reduction, behavioural change, and transitional solutions.

3. Falling Behind International Best Practice

➢ Waste, transport, and finance policy lagging comparable jurisdictions.

4. Focus on End Use Rather Than Supply

➢ Limited use of fuel taxation, standards, or mandates.

The Executive Summary sets out recommendations under two headings –

1. Stable, predictable and Consistent policy: Output driven budgets, funded and monitored.

➢ Provide multi-year programme funding aligned with multi-year output driven Carbon Budgets and underpinned by clear and consistent policy commitments.

➢ Apply system level analysis on how different sectors and objectives are interconnected.

➢ Use timing as a lever to minimise trade-offs with Jersey’s other strategic objectives.

➢ Review the resourcing of support and governance.

➢ Measure, encourage and recognise private sector leadership.

2. Cross-Sector Themes

➢ Apply the Polluter Pays principle.

➢ Infrastructure migration: Clear and firm commitments to the phase-out of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles and boilers, prioritise a waste strategy to replace the Energy Recovery Facility (ERF) dependence and develop robust strategies for managed transition or exit of some fossil fuel systems.

➢ Establish clear transition strategies to balance transition timings and upfront cost.

➢ Shift in behaviour, modes and making a reduction in energy wastage easy.

➢ Data improvements (type, amount and timing).

➢ Prioritise the skills agenda, particularly in sustainable finance and infrastructure transition.

➢ Enable market‑driven finance options (e.g., green bonds and mortgages).

Sustainable transport policy

The Roadmap included: “bring forward the Sustainable Transport Roadmap to the States Assembly by the Q4 of 2022”. This did not happen. The progress report stated that this has now been renamed “Sustainable Transport Policy” and would be published by 24 July – six days later. This did not happen. On 6 December 2023, the Government published Sustainable Transport Policy: Next Steps.

The Policy does not have a summary; it is best summarised in the press release accompanying the report, which stated that the document prioritises six areas –

• making the roads safer for all of us
• reallocating road space to prioritise cycling and walking
• raising the profile of public transport
• managing vehicle movement through parking measures
• supporting the Island’s economy
• enabling future transport mobility and legislative change.

Some of the key commitments include –

• The creation of a Strategic Road Safety Unit and the publication of a road safety strategy.
• Creating more accessible, safer, covered waiting areas for bus users.
• Identifying opportunities to bring low carbon vehicles into the bus fleet.
• Reviewing charges and charging time periods for parking in public car parks.
• Working with key stakeholders to support shared mobility transport solutions.

The report includes 10 decision-making principles, originally published in 2020, for transport that will be “built into and applied in public decision-making in a range of ways” –

• Recognise that fewer motor vehicle journeys will be good for Jersey.
• Conform with the Jersey mobility hierarchy (which begins with children, elderly people and people with disabilities and ends with single occupancy cars).
• Improve transport options, including parking, for people with mobility impairments.
• Make walking and cycling routes more attractive, especially for school and commuting, by providing safer routes.
• Invest in a better bus system that more people want to use and that is accessible to all, [and present a Bus Service Development Plan to the States for debate during the spring session 2021].
• Recognise, and price fairly, the social and environmental costs of private vehicle use [and present a Parking Plan for debate during the Spring session 2021].
• Reduce the impact of vehicles on our landscape and create more space for people in St Helier.
• Create public service and planning systems that reduce the need to travel.
• Discourage the use of petrol and diesel vehicles and encourage the use of zero emission vehicles to reduce pollution.
• Work with businesses that rely on road transport to support their efficient and safe use of the road network, their delivery and servicing needs and their uptake of alternative low carbon fuels.

Energy policy

Jersey does not currently have an energy policy. The Carbon Neutral Roadmap (CNR) is currently the key document. The summary in the CNR on the island energy market stated –

There are a number of available and emerging non-fossil hydrocarbon products and new energy sources that are entering the marketplace in all sectors. They will reach maturity and commercial availability over the next three decades and have the potential to contribute to Jersey’s decarbonisation journey. Some new products, particularly biofuels, are direct substitutes for existing fossil-hydrocarbons making transition simpler assuming supply and demand align, and prices are competitive enough to encourage uptake.

There will be a need to accommodate changes to our energy system in the future, as products change and with increased potential to democratise power generation, distribution, and storage.

There are challenges to bring new energy sources to the Island where they require new infrastructure and supply lines (for example, hydrogen).

We expect to see a decentralisation of electricity generation in the forthcoming decades, and we will need to consider the impact of this on our current electricity market and infrastructure.

As the cost of generating utility scale (offshore) renewable energy falls, we might want to consider investment to provide the Island with energy sovereignty and resilience. Jersey participates in the British Irish Council energy work stream where it is represented alongside England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales and the other Crown Dependencies. Jersey is represented on a number of French working groups e.g., Ille et Vilaine, La Manche, where renewable energy is a key topic due to the development of the St Brieuc windfarm in French territorial waters. There will be increased coordination across the Channel Islands with recent discussions seeking to re-establish a Ministerial working group that will identify opportunities to work across the Islands to explore the opportunities for marine renewable projects.

Responding to these related challenges requires a clear and long-term government led energy strategy with clear and accountable political leadership. A new ministerial portfolio for energy and climate change is recommended to oversee the planned energy market review, which will need to ensure our statutory and regulatory framework remains fit-for-purpose in a new energy future to balance energy affordability, sustainability, and security of supply issues.

The CNR stated that an Energy Strategy would be published by Q4 2023. This did not happen. The following response was given on 27 February 2024 to a Freedom of Information request –

A future-focussed Government-led Energy Strategy is an output proposed in Strategic Policy 2 of the Carbon Neutral Roadmap arising from a strategic review of Jersey’s long term energy requirements. The policy outlines consideration of, amongst other things, economic, regulatory infrastructure and land use requirements linked to future energy use; it intends to provide a process – and appropriate political governance – to develop energy market policy in a joined-up and evidence-based way. It was proposed that to support this work, government would establish new research and advisory partnerships with energy systems experts; explore opportunities to trial, appropriately, new and emerging energy solutions in Jersey; and work with the Energy Forum to solicit decarbonisation transition plans and market insights from all current Island energy providers. A new ministerial portfolio for energy and climate change was also recommended. As part of the strategic energy market policy, there was a commitment to work with our sister Islands and examine the options for utility scale renewable energy generation, to ensure a diverse, safe and resilient supply of energy to meet the Island’s future needs.

This strategy has not yet been published. However, with the establishment of a ministerial portfolio for energy within the Minister for Environment’s portfolio this has been an active area of work, with consideration and policy development being undertaken across the energy market portfolio, as described in Strategic Policy 2, that will ultimately build into a strategy. Focus has been on Council of Ministers’ development of a proposal for export scale offshore wind energy with an in-principal Report and Proposition being debated in the States Assembly in March. Such a decision would transform our energy strategy. A conclusion to this policy proposal, as well as further ongoing analysis of the energy market particularly any impacts on the LPG gas market, will allow this Government to develop an Energy Strategy.

While this response helpfully sets out some of the issues with an energy strategy, it implied that the States Assembly would take a firm decision to build a wind farm. In fact, the Assembly agreed that “Jersey should pursue the opportunities arising from the development of offshore wind in the south-west of its territorial waters”. However, during the debate, the Environment Minister said that the proposition did not commit the Island to building a wind farm, to any excessive expenditure, or binding Jersey into a relationship with third parties. He added that after detailed studies had taken place a decision could be reached that the concept did not work for Jersey. In November 2025 the Government published a comprehensive report which effectively put the project on hold. The report’s conclusion was that “It is premature to open a lease process. Although offshore wind could offer Jersey real economic potential, current market uncertainty, geopolitical risk and unclear access to export markets make this an unfavourable time to proceed with a leasing process. A decision should only follow once market conditions and access terms are clearly understood and shown to deliver a net benefit for Islanders”.

On 22 April 2025, the States Assembly resolved that the Council of Ministers must –

(a) develop, and before 31st December 2026 start implementing, an evidence-based energy strategy that sets out Jersey’s long-term energy requirements and balances the need for affordability, safety, security, a market that delivers competitive outcomes and carbon neutrality of the energy sector in Jersey; and

(b) bring forward any necessary legislative changes subsequent to the implementation of the energy strategy, for approval by the Assembly before the 31st of December 2027.

Financing strategy and the Climate Emergency Fund

The Climate Emergency Fund is the mechanism for funding the various Carbon Neutral Roadmap initiatives. However, how the fund operates is not clear. The Roadmap has a section headed “Financing Strategy – Carbon Neutral Roadmap – strategic policy 3”. This states that the Fund “will maintain a hypothecated revenue stream to fund Jersey’s decarbonisation”. Three stages were proposed to identify the funding –

Short-term: using resources already in the fund to support policies in the first stage (2022-2026).

Medium-term: government will bring forward in 2022, in time for potential inclusion in the Government Plan 2023, proposals for new economic instruments that generate income ring-fenced to the Climate Emergency Fund (in whole or in part) in the following areas:

a. Road user charges

b. Reinvestigation of commercial solid waste charges

c. Car parking charges

d. Travel duty, and

Longer-term: bring forward in 2023, in time for potential inclusion in the Government Plan 2024, a long-term financing strategy that considers all available options to continue to fund the decarbonisation of the economy at the pace required to achieve the emissions trajectory established in Carbon Neutral Roadmap.

The Roadmap made a number of further references to the Fund –

• Excess revenue from Vehicle Emissions duty increases will be deposited in the Fund.
• The Environment Minister has policy responsibility for administering the fund.
• High level spend is agreed by the Assembly via the Government Plan or the “carbon neutral delivery fund”.
• The Treasury Minister is responsible for the investment strategy of the fund.

The CNR set out how the initial funding would be used –

Speeding up adoption of electric vehicles £4,855,000

Supporting transition fuels £3,189,000

Bus service development trials £1,500,000

Active Travel £1,700,000

Supporting low carbon heating and insulation £5,706,000

Energy performance certificates £355,000

Promoting low-carbon lifestyles £200,000

Delivering a sustainable finance framework £60,000

Decarbonising Government of Jersey £1,260,000

Create a carbon neutral network £500,000

Delivering the COP26 education pledge £200,000

Blue carbon biodiversity and sequestration £1,325,000

Policy development £1,200,000

Regulatory, enabling and programme £950,000

Total £23,000,000

However, no proposals for new economic instruments were brought forward in 2022 to be included in the Government Plan 2023.

The Roadmap refers to a “long-term financing strategy” (LTFS) to be brought forward in 2023 for inclusion in the 2024 Government Plan. The Government Plan did have a section under this heading. However, it is not a strategy but rather “the principles under which detailed proposals for financing will be developed”. In summary, these are –

1. The LTFS will work fairly for all Islanders – just transition, polluter pays and intergenerational equity.

2. The LTFS will target the best value approach for Islanders – value for money, minimising costs funded through taxation, fast follower and international alignment, the role for Jersey’s sustainable finance industry and the role of government funds in derisking investment.

3. Financing will be made available when it is needed.

The Plan continued –

Ensuring that the burden of paying for the move to carbon neutrality doesn’t fall on future generations means that it will be necessary to raise funding. Based on previous estimates of a c.£300 million requirement, this would equate to approximately £10 million a year over the next 30 years, some of which will be delivered by the existing revenue ring-fenced to the Climate Emergency Fund each year.

Further policy work will also take place in 2024 to establish a suitable set of polluter-pays measures that could deliver the additional funding required.

This will include investigation of the introduction of an appropriate carbon tax or charge relating to the operation of private aircraft.

Polluter pays measures are designed to encourage changes to behaviour, therefore any future decreases in revenues will need to be understood as part of the development of new measures. The impact of any measures on Islanders will also need to be carefully assessed and understood to ensure that the principle of a fair transition is upheld. Any new form of taxation will involve associated administrative and compliance costs, which must also be factored into the viability of introducing any tax.

The Budget (Government Plan) 2025-2028 contained no further detail but stated that the LTFS has been renamed the Net Zero Financing Strategy.

Successive Government Plans give further details about the operation of the Climate Emergency Fund. The Government Plan 2023-2026 stated that: “The Fund was created with £5 million transferred from the Consolidated Fund in 2020 and receives annual income from an above RPI increase in fuel duty. At its current value, it is accepted that the Fund is insufficient to fund all the necessary policies to achieve our carbon neutral targets, and it is expected that further income streams will need to be added to the Fund.”

The Government Plan 2024-2027 had different wording: “The Fund was created with £5 million transferred from the Consolidated Fund in 2020 and receives annual income from previously agreed increases in fuel duty”.

This change was needed because the decision was taken in 2022 to freeze fuel duty in 2023 as an exceptional measure in recognition of the significant increase in the cost of living. The proposed 2024 Government Plan included: “Ministers are proposing to return to the policy of holding the rate of duty constant, in real terms, by indexing it to the growth of RPI (10.9%). The uprating of fuel duty signals Ministers’ commitment to the agreed Carbon Neutral Roadmap.” In the event, the Government accepted a recommendation from the Scrutiny Panel to freeze the duty for a second year.

The Budget for 2025 maintained the freezing of fuel duty, so it has been held at 64p a litre for unleaded fuel since January 2022. If it had been increased in line with RPI it would now be 79p. In real terms the tax on fossil fuel has fallen by 19%. The income from the duty on fuel is estimated to be £25.857 million in 2025. If the duty had been increased in line with RPI, and assuming no impact on demand, revenue would be approximately 19% higher at £30.770 million. The agreed Budget for 2026 includes an RPI-linked increase of 1.7p, which will increase the yield by £620,000.

Table 1 shows the figures from the various government plans for the Fund. There is no clear reconciliation between the plans. Successive Government Plans recognise that the fund is not sufficient to fund all the policies needed to achieve the targets in the roadmap.

Table 1 The Climate Emergency Fund

The budgeted expenditure figures for future years are £4,427,000 (2027), £4,363,000 (2028) and £4,300,000 in 2029.

Assessment of progress

The objective in the CNR is “at a minimum reduce emissions by 68% compared to the 1990 baseline by 2030, and reduce them to 78% from baseline by 2035”.

Jersey had made considerable progress in reducing emissions – a 48.8% reduction between 1990 and 2024, an annual rate of about 1.5%. About three-quarters of this reduction was accounted for by electricity supply being switched from an oil-fired power station to nuclear and hydro-electricity from France. Nuclear and hydro-electric are not entirely carbon-free. However, compared with using fossil fuels to generate electricity, the emissions are tiny.

The consultancy Aether produces an annual report, the Guide to the Jersey Greenhouse Gas Inventory. The 2026 report, giving data for 2024, was published on 22 July 2026. Table 2 shows the change in emissions by sector since 1990.

Table 2 Carbon emissions, tonnes CO2 equivalent, 1990 and 2024

It will be seen that emissions from energy fell by 81%; emissions from all other sectors combined fell by 36%. Including energy, emissions declined by an average of 1.5% a year between 1990 and 2023. However, this conceals an average annual reduction of 3.5% a year between 1990 and 2003 and 1.0% a year subsequently.

Total emissions fell by 4.0% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024.  However, it should be noted that the 2023 inventory reported a reduction of just 0.2% in 2023.

Table 3 shows the required rate of reduction of emissions to achieve the 2030 target.

 Table 3 Emissions, 1990-2030

To achieve the 2030 target, emissions will need to be 214,000 tonnes CO2 equivalent, a reduction of 37.5% on the 2024 figure, an annual rate of 7.5%. Each year that emissions fall below the required annual rate, the greater the reduction required in subsequent years.

A forward indicator of emissions is the volume of imports of road fuel. This fell by 5.26% in 2024 but increased by 0.2% in 2025. This suggests that at the least there will be no significant increase in the rate of reduction of emissions.

It is worth noting briefly the position in other jurisdictions –

• The UK has published detailed figures for 2025, which show a 54% reduction, compared with Jersey’s 48.8% in 2024. Emissions fell by 5.0% in 2023, 2.7% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.
• Guernsey adopted a target of a 57% reduction in emissions by 2030 from its 1990 baseline. By 2024 emissions had fallen by 50.8%. and the provisional figure for 2025 is 51.5%. Emissions fell by 3.8% in 2024; the provision estimate for 2025 is a fall of 1.5%.
• The Isle of Man adopted a lower target of a 35% reduction in emissions by 2030 and a 45% reduction by 2035, though its baseline is its 2018 net emissions. Emissions fell by 10.4% between 2018 and 2024 and by 8.5% in 2024.

The CNR sets out a specific sub-target for vehicles to be met by 2030 – 67% of vehicles decarbonised.

It is worth noting that this is a rather unhelpful target. It is feasible to reduce emissions substantially without people buying electric cars. If people with petrol or diesel vehicles drive 10% less then emissions from vehicles would fall by 10%. If a person with a fuel-inefficient Range Rover buys a Ford Fiesta and uses it for half of their journeys, then the proportion of fossil fuel vehicles rises but emissions fall. Also, the carbon content of electric vehicles is much higher than for petrol-driven vehicles. A new electric vehicle driven for 4,000 miles a year, the average in Jersey, will be responsible for more emissions than a new petrol-driven car.

The Government does not publish data on electric vehicles in an accessible way. Table 4 shows the available data, derived from a variety of sources and, while subject to a margin of error, are adequate to show trends.

Table 4 Electric vehicles, 2021-2025

Notes:

1. In 2025 4,309 vehicles were registered and 2,792 were deregistered.
2. Although about 129,400 vehicles were registered at the end of 2025 many are no longer in use. It is estimated that there are about 92,000 vehicles in use. So, about 4.0% of vehicles in use at the end of 2024 were electric.

A report by PwC on the Distributional Impacts of the Carbon Neutral Strategy suggested that with no incentives, electric vehicles would account for 13% of the Jersey fleet by 2030, and with incentives 23%. On present trends the PwC estimate of 13% seems at the top end of the range of possible outcomes; a figure of around 10% seems more likely. The target of 67% is incapable of being met.

The CNR has specific targets for decarbonising fossil fuel boilers by 2030.

75% of domestic and 50% of commercial fossil fuel boilers decarbonised.  In terms of numbers this means 16,000 domestic boilers and 1,700 commercial boilers

A government incentive scheme for domestic boilers was introduced in May 2023. This covers all of the low-carbon technologies available to households from which they can make their choice. This includes heat pumps, electric flow boilers and direct electric heating. No regular statistics on the take-up of the scheme are published. Data are available only through Freedom of Information requests. By October 2025, 709 grant applications had been accepted, of which 134 were to replace existing fossil fuel heating systems with an air source heat pump.

The 16,000 target works out at 2,000 a year over an eight-year period. In the first nine months of 2025, that is after the incentive scheme had been running for nearly two years, 241 grants were made, an annual rate of 321. This performance is very similar to that in the UK.

On 14 May 2024 the Government announced that a ban on the installation of new fossil fuel boilers, scheduled for 2026, had been delayed, but with no new date given for implementation.

It is commonly believed that Jersey’s electricity is carbon-free as it is imported from nuclear and hydro-electric sources in France. This is true of about 95% of electricity. But the other 5% is produced from the Energy Recovery Facility (ERF) at La Collette, which accounts for 14% of Jersey’s emissions. By comparison, energy supply accounts for 10% of England’s emissions. However, the electricity is a by-product of the ERF; if JEC did not buy it then 100% of electricity would be carbon-free, and waste management would account for 14% of emissions.

The ERF will reach the end of its useful life in about 2035. There is no prospect of Jersey meeting its 2050 emissions target if it continues with its current policy of a low level of recycling (partly caused by having 13 different organisations responsible for waste disposal) and burning most waste. Jersey currently recycles about 33% of waste compared with 68% in Guernsey. An early decision to move away from burning waste is essential if the 2050 target is to be met.

The Carbon Neutral Roadmap included the following –

Emissions from waste come when it is created but also when it is collected and disposed of. The current waste strategy has expired and will be reviewed and updated by the end of 2025. It will show the steps that will be taken to reduce emissions from waste in Jersey, including setting a high-level specification for a net-zero facility to succeed the current energy from waste plant from 2040.

and

The Minister for Infrastructure will progress the waste aspect of the policy in delivery phase 1 and will bring forward a Circular Economy Strategy to the States Assembly by the Q4 of 2025 for implementation from 2026.

The 2024 Progress Report on the CNR gave both points a green classification – that is they were on track. The 2025 Progress Report stated that both were “off-track” with “work reprioritised until next term of government”. On 4 August 2025, the Government published Investing in Jersey: 2026-2050. The executive summary stated that it “sets out a long-term, coordinated plan for renewing and maintaining the Island’s infrastructure and public assets. It provides a clear framework for investment in key areas such as housing, education, roads, utilities, coastal resilience, public buildings, and shared community spaces.” The document makes no mention of the ERF.

Conclusion

The target of reducing emissions by 68% compared to the 1990 baseline by 2030 seems impossible to achieve at the current rate of policy adoption and implementation. This would require an annual 7.5% reduction in emissions whereas the figures for the three most recent years for which figures are available are 4.0% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024. The reason why the target cannot be achieved is that no measures have been adopted which could significantly reduce emissions. The incentives to buy electric vehicles and to decarbonise boilers have been too small to have any effect and the freeze on fuel duty has failed to create any incentive for limiting fossil fuel usage.

Further information

The government website has a page The Journey to Net Zero, although this is now significantly out of date.

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