Newsletter- May 2026

General election

Jersey’s General Election will be held on Sunday 7 June. The Policy Centre’s publications provide essential briefing material for candidates as well as explaining how the political system works.

A significant development in April was the publication of provisional figures on the size of the electorate following the decision to introduce automatic registration of electors. This was covered in a news item published on 5 May. Key points –

• The electorate is 79,615, a 31% increase on the figure for the 2022 election. The increase in the electorate varied from 71% in St Helier to just one person in St Mary.
• As result of automatic registration people who do not want to vote will be registered. A reasonable estimate is that turnout will be five percentage points lower than it otherwise would have been.
• Guernsey compiles a register for each election as a result of which there are few people on the register who should not be and no one on the register who does not want to be on it. As a result, published turnout figures give a misleading impression –
• Jersey 2022 election:  42% of registered electors, 31% of eligible electors, voted.
• Guernsey 2025 election: 72% of registered electors, 38% of eligible electors, voted.

Guernsey By-election

A by-election was held in Guernsey on 30 April. The published turnout was just 17%, 9% of eligible voters.  The winning candidate had 953 votes, 1.9% of eligible electors.

Referendums in small states

A news item published on 30 April noted that the current issue of the Small States & Territories Journal has a special section on referendums in small states. The editorial by Peter Clegg and Wendy Grenade includes the following -`

• While referendums are commonly viewed as decisive instruments of popular sovereignty, they rarely deliver clear or final resolutions. 
• Referendums need to be seen as iterative moments within longer developments defined by uncertainty, negotiation, and managed ambiguity. 
• The value of referendums depends on context, sequencing, and integration within broader constitutional debates.

The journal includes a paper specifically on Jersey – Jersey referendums, governance, tradition and direct democracy – by Peter Hargreaves. The paper analyses how referendums have been used historically. The paper argues that referendums have been adopted tactically, their outcome intended, or interpreted, at times to slow down change.

Policy Briefs updated

The Centre’s 33 Policy Briefs cover all current policy issues and are regularly updated or expanded.  Social Security was substantially updated to include statistics for 2025 from the 2025 States of Jersey Group Annual Accounts –

• £364 million was paid into the social security scheme. Employers paid 46%, employees 38%, and the self-employed 7%, Tax revenue contributed the remaining 8%, a significant reduction from 19% in 2024.
• Benefits of £397 million were paid, of which pension payments were £274 million.
• The Health Insurance Fund paid benefits of £54 million, mainly to help low-income people meet the cost of GP appointments and drugs.
• The Social Security (Reserve) Fund, which largely exists to meet pension liabilities, stood at £2,705 million. 
• The Long-Term Care Fund is funded separately by an additional 1.5% levy on income. Contributions were £50 million but payments were £93 million, the balance being met by from tax revenue.
• Income support is funded out of general taxation not social security contributions and is paid to those with incomes below specified thresholds. Income support also meets rental costs within certain limits. Income support payments totalled £85 million, of which £38 million was to meet housing costs.

Economic trends was updated to include –

• The publication of RPI data. The All-Items RPI increased by 2.7% in the year to March 2026, compared with 2.8% in the year to December 2025 and 2.3% in the year to March 2025. The rate of inflation was 0.7 percentage points lower than the UK figure.
• The publication of the Business Tendency Survey, March 2026. The all-sector business activity indicator was neutral and the expectation for future business activity was moderately positive. The main factors limiting business activity were staff and/or skills shortages. 

Arts, culture and heritage was updated to include the annual update of the delivery of the various strategies