Newsletter – August 2026

Economic forecasts published

On 17 July the latest economic assumptions by the Island’s Fiscal Policy Panel were put on the Government of Jersey website. Unlike in previous years, there is no detailed analysis. The Policy Centre’s Policy Brief Economic Trends has been updated to include the assumptions and a brief analysis of changes compared with a year ago.

Key points in the assumptions are –

• A decline of 0.1% in the size of the economy in 2026 followed by an increase of 0.9% in 2027.
• An underlying inflation rate of 4.4% in 2026 falling to 3.7% in 2027.
• Average earnings increasing by 4.4% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027.
• House prices being stable in 2026 and then increasing by 2% in 2027.
• Housing transactions being stable in 2026 and increasing by 17.1% in 2027.

The main changes in the assumptions for 2026 compared with the forecasts in May 2025 are –

• A fall in real gross value added of 0.1% (+0.9%)
• An increase in underlying inflation to 4.4% (3.6%)
• An increase in interest rate to 4.1% (3.7%)
• No change in house prices (2.0%)

Latest RPI and business tendency survey published

On 24 July 2026, Statistics Jersey released the quarterly RPI report. Key points –

• the Retail Prices Index (RPI) increased by 2.8% in the year to June 2026, a slight increase on the 2.7% figure in the year to March 2026.
• Household services, fuel and light, motoring and food were the price groups that made the largest contributions to the increase.
• The rate of inflation in Jersey, as measured by the RPI, was the same as the UK CPIH, which is the broadly comparable headline rate of inflation for the UK.

On 22 July 2026 Statistic Jersey published the Business Tendency Survey, June 2026. The key points were –

• The all-sector business activity indicator was neutral with a balance of +8 percentage points.
• The expectation for future business activity was moderately positive with a balance of +23 percentage points.
• The main factors limiting business activity were cited as being staff and/or skills shortage (50%).

Data from these two reports have been included in the Policy Centre’s Policy Brief Economic Trends.

Carbon emissions

Jersey’s Carbon Neutral Roadmap has a commitment to “at a minimum reduce emissions by 68% compared to the 1990 baseline by 2030, and reduce them to 78% from baseline by 2035”.

The consultancy Aether produces an annual report on Jersey’s carbon emissions. The 2026 report, giving data for 2024, was published on 22 July 2026. This showed a reduction of 48.8% in emissions since 1990.

Emissions from energy fell by 81%; emissions from all other sectors combined fell by 36%. Including energy, emissions declined by an average of 1.5% a year between 1990 and 2023. However, this conceals an average annual reduction of 3.5% a year between 1990 and 2003 and 1.0% a year subsequently.

Total emissions fell by 4.0% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024.  Emissions need to fall by 7.5% a year to achieve the 2030 target. The brief concludes that “the target of reducing emissions by 68% compared to the 1990 baseline by 2030 seems impossible to achieve at the current rate of policy adoption and implementation……… The reason why the target cannot be achieved is that no measures have been adopted which could significantly reduce emissions. The incentives to buy electric vehicles and to decarbonise boilers have been too small to have any effect and the freeze on fuel duty has failed to create any incentive for limiting fossil fuel usage.”

The data, together with a comprehensive analysis of all aspect of the Carbon Neutral Roadmap, has been included to a new edition of the Policy Brief Carbon Neutral Roadmap, published on July 24.

Long-term care

Long-term care is a significant public policy issue in many countries.

The key issue is that with an ageing population a growing number of elderly people cannot look after themselves and need support. The Long-Term Care (Jersey) Law 2012 provided for the introduction of the Long-Term Care Scheme with effect from 2014, funded by an additional tax on income and a government contribution.

Taxpayers pay an additional 1.5% tax to fund the scheme. The government also makes a contribution. In 2025, contributions totalled £50 million, the government grant was £39 million, and benefits paid totalled £93 million.

However, benefit payments have increased more than anticipated, largely because of an increase in the number of people receiving benefits. This has prompted the government to plan for an increase in the funding rate by 1.0 percentage point to 2.5% from January 2027. A review of the scheme is also being undertaken.

The Centre’s Policy Brief Long-term Care has been updated to include the most recent data, together with the history of the scheme, how it operates, financial trends and policy issues.

Meet the Management Committee

Behind every piece of the Policy Centre Jersey’s research is a dedicated team of Management Committee members, our Research Advisory Group and research students, who help ensure our work is rigorous, independent and focused on increasing knowledge about and civic engagement in Jersey.

In a new series introducing the people behind the Policy Centre, we’re pleased to spotlight Phillip Callow and Jing Jing Shi.

An active member of the Management Committee, Phillip Callow is Managing Director of Moore Stephens Audit & Assurance (Channel Islands) and brings more than 40 years of experience in the financial services industry.

Throughout his career, Phillip has held senior leadership roles as Chair, Director, Company Secretary and Chief Executive across organisations ranging from small private companies to international operations. Alongside his professional career, Phillip has made a significant contribution to Jersey’s charitable sector. He is currently Chair of the Jersey Child Care Trust and has previously served as Chair of Durrell Wildlife Conservation Trust and the Association of Jersey Charities.

Working alongside Philip on the Management Committee, Jing Jing Shi brings more than 20 years of experience across the financial services industry, spanning investment banking, private banking, hedge funds, and financial planning.

Jing Jing served as Economic Advisor to the Institute of Directors Jersey and is a member of the Audit and Risk Advisory Panel for the Office of the Children’s Commissioner for Jersey. Her extensive expertise in finance, governance, and economic policy brings valuable insight to the Policy Centre’s work, helping to strengthen our research and its relevance to Jersey’s future.

We’d like to thank both Phillip and Jing Jing for giving their time and expertise and look forward to introducing more members of the Management Committee in future newsletters.