Economic forecasts published

On 17 July the latest economic assumptions by the Island’s Fiscal Policy Panel were put on the Government of Jersey website. Unlike in previous years, there is no detailed analysis.

The Policy Centre’s Policy Brief Economic Trends has been updated to include the assumptions.

Key points in the assumptions are –

• A decline of 0.1% in the size of the economy in 2026 followed by an increase of 0.9% in 2027.
• An underlying inflation rate of 4.4% in 2026 falling to 3.7% in 2027.
• Average earnings increasing by 4.4% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2027.
• House prices being stable in 2026 and then increasing by 2% in 2027.
• Housing transactions being stable in 2026 and increasing by 17.1% in 2027.

The main changes in the assumptions for 2026 compared with the forecasts in May 2025 are –

• A fall in real gross value added of 0.1% (+0.9%)
• An increase in underlying inflation to 4.4% (3.6%)
• An increase in interest rate to 4.1% (3.7%)
• No change in house prices (2.0%)

The table is reproduced below.

This Policy Brief provides a summary of the key data on trends in the Jersey economy, in particular the major variables – economic growth, retail prices and earnings, as well as the analysis by the Fiscal Policy Panel.